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Ahmad Al-Sati

| Alternative Assets | Commodities | Private Markets | International Expertise |

Ahmad Al-Sati is a Portfolio Manager and Partner at Gemcorp Capital, an asset management firm focused on emerging markets. He is based in New York and has a diverse background in investment management, bringing a comprehensive skill set to his role. His experience includes providing bespoke investment solutions and engaging in high-quality growth opportunities within emerging markets.13

In addition to his role at Gemcorp, Ahmad has been involved in various discussions and events related to private equity and investment climates, particularly in Turkey and surrounding regions. He has also held positions at Albright Capital Management, further enhancing his expertise in the field.24 His professional network and contributions are evident from his active participation in industry events, where he engages with other leaders in finance.5

Highlights

Aug 25 · linkedin

Natural gas companies are in talks with data centers to build natural gas power plants onsite. To do that, US gas companies (e.g., the Williams Companies and US Energy Transfer) will have to build the requisite pipelines necessary to fuel these localized power plants. This continues attempts by utilities to meet the voracious appetite for electricity by data centers (e.g., data centers represented 24% of Virginia Power’s electricity sales in 2023).

Renewable energy is not optimal here because these facilities require continuous and consistent supply for electricity without interruptions and interruptions can occur when a grid moves from renewables to backup energy.

Natural gas is ideal for these facilities. However it produces methane, which is a significant contributor to warming in the atmosphere. Although methane, has a shorter life in the atmosphere (i.e. it dissipates after 7-12 years) than CO2 (which can persist for 100 years), it has 20x the impact on the atmosphere over a 100-year period.

While methane production is an important factor, it needs to be considered within the broader context. The oil and gas industry is not the primary producer of methane. Nature accounts for 40% of all methane production. Globally, the agriculture sector emits 50% percent of human-made methane of which ruminant animals (cows and sheep) produce 70% of that through their manure and by burping methane as part of their digestion process.

The anthropogenic methane produced by the oil and gas industry can be reduced significantly by tackling leaks and flares as well as by using existing methane capture technologies at scale. Capturing leaked methane from oil and gas operations could be equivalent to zeroing the emissions of every car and truck out there according to the World Bank. Those captured technologies can also be used for coal mines and methane producing waste dumps, which are also significant contributors of methane gas.

Natural gas is an important transition fuel that will be used by a variety of industries in the immediate to medium term. Banning it or limiting its use is not economical. Best practices need to be adopted to minimize (if not eliminate) any potential harmful impact by reducing methane leakage into the atmosphere. Captured methane can be a valuable source of energy and need not be wasted. An opportunity exists for investors and operators to enhance efficiencies and adopt best practices and technology while meeting the ever-increasing demands for continuous and stable electricity. 

#commodities #energytranisiton #methane #naturalgas

Aug 18 · linkedin

Here I lie wounded but not slain, I lie to bleed a while but will rise to fight again.

Lore has it that Pat Riley (the legendary coach) used this poem to stay focused when nothing was going right with the Miami Heat during those first few seasons.

Value investors could certainly use this poem.

One dollar invested in the Large Growth Index yielded 258% over the past 10 years while one dollar invested in the Large Value Index yielded 148% over the same period. During those same 10 years, US growth stocks outperformed US value stocks by an average of 7.8% per year as the value premium turned negative. Growth has been the clear winner. 

That was not always the case. Over the past 100 years value stocks (partly defined as those with lower relative prices or higher book/market ratios) outperformed growth stocks on average by 4.4% annually. One dollar invested in 1927 in large-cap value stocks would total $20,545 in 2017. The same dollar invested in large-cap growth would amount to only $2,343 (Source Anchor Capital). Underperformance by value is usually followed by strong performance (on an absolute and relative basis) and by as much as 15% annually in the ensuing period.

Today, value investing is derided as investing in what some consider “dull” companies and sectors – they are not “changing the world”. But value investors invest in any sector that is cheap relative to its intrinsic value. These sectors are typically neglected by large swaths of investors, trade at lower multiples and have historically low weighting in the S&P 500.

Natural resources fit these criteria. The relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a commodity index, shows that commodities valuations are at historic lows and equivalent to those of ‘69. and ’99 - both of which preceded a decade long commodities bull market. Commodities are also out of favor with allocators. The percentage allocated to commodities in portfolios is at an all-time low (1.7%). The long bear market has left its marks. After peaking with at 20% weighting of the S&P 500 in ’07, energy and materials are now less than 5%.

Commodities have historically outperformed following periods of under allocation and low prices. An equally weighted portfolio of energy, mining, gold and agricultural stocks achieved 500% return in the ‘70s relative to the 170% performance by the S&P 500. In early ‘00s that same portfolio achieved a 400% returns relative to 20% return to the S&P 500 (source: Goehring and Rozencwajg).   

History says price matters even as recent events and investor behavior may say otherwise. Having the ability to adapt and look for pockets that are undervalued is what may allow investors to benefit from a shifting landscape. Ultimately, it is the periods of underperformance and surrender that create the opportunities which lead to overperformance.

P.S. This is an AI free product for better or worse. Not investment advice.

#commodities #value

Table source: Dimensional.

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Ahmad Al-Sati
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New York, New York, United States