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Ashutosh Mishra
Senior Vice President | Treasury, Forex, Commodities and Fixed Income Expert | Published Author| Keynote Speaker
Ashutosh Mishra is a seasoned business leader currently serving as the Head of Forex and Commodity Hedging Treasury at JSW Steel, a position he has held since November 2022. Based in Mumbai, Maharashtra, he has extensive experience in treasury and financial markets, with a strong background in managing corporate sales and risk management services.
Professional Background
Mishra's career includes significant roles in various financial institutions:
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StayTouch: Managed operations in India and the Middle East as Managing Director from February 2022 to January 2023.
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ANZ: Served as Director and Head of Corporate Sales for Markets India from March 2012 to March 2021, focusing on Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities.
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Goldman Sachs: Held the position of Head of Macro Sales for Corporate & Institutions, where he was instrumental in establishing fixed income operations in India.
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Deutsche Bank: Worked as Director and Head of Flow Sales for Fixed Income.
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American Express Bank: Managed Treasury Sales.
Mishra's educational credentials include an MBA in Finance, Marketing, and Management from XLRI Jamshedpur and a B.Tech in Mechanical Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi.
Contributions and Recognition
Beyond his corporate roles, he is also a board member for the MBA Tech Program at SVKM's Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies and has participated in industry panels and events, such as moderating discussions on economic challenges and business reinvention at SIM'ergence'23.12
Mishra is recognized for his expertise in treasury management and has contributed to discussions on navigating economic uncertainties in the corporate sector.
Highlights
Macro Views - 29th Aug
For the macro markets, it's a slow wait for the FOMC meeting outcome on Sept 18th. Meanwhile the data continues to point to soft landing as the new home sales are better than expected, composite PMI is higher and better than expected durable goods orders. Markets have digested 25bps cut and building in 100bps of cuts over next three meetings. Dollar index fell further touching a low of 100.50 before recovering a bit to 101. 2yr UST at 3.87% is very close to 10yr at 3.84%, indicating a possibility of normalizing of the yield curve to an upward slope. Today's GDP data (2.8% exp), personal consumption and tomorrow Core PCE indicator (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) hold the key to fulfilling market's wishes. However, the pace of rate cuts priced is a tad aggressive and anything less has more chances of causing a wild upswing in yields again than the other way around. Equity rally in the US seems to be plateauing as Nvidia was punished due to a subdued sales forecast in spite of stellar results and Super Micro was hit by Hindenburg causing a 20% decline.
JPY traded on a strong note on the back of BOJ reiteration that they will hike more if inflation continues to rise. Couple of top BOJ officials are playing classic "Good Cop Bad Cop" with the Dy Gov Uchida saying they will not hilke when markets are unstable while Dy Gov Himino sticking to the inflation narrative. For now, JPY has come into a comfortable zone for BOJ as the threat of imminent moves on either side is gone. In the short term (next 2-3 months), there is still a chance to go approach 140. Euro has taken a breather after rising very fast from 1.09 towards 1.12 and is due for a correction.
USDINR trades in the same range 83.80-83.98 irrespective of other currencies and flows. Equity flows are marginally negative at -$800mn but debt flows are positive as expected at $2bn. Rupee is expected to be driven by CNY levels, asymmetrically. Any strength in CNH is not likely to translate into INR strength but any weakness may reflect prominently. CNY strength is also a part of the global carry trade unwind and some of it may still be left. Next direction of CNY may be decided by the way US election scenario evolves. Notable point being the arrival of Obamas in full force to support Kamala.
INR forwards may show more upticks in line with the US interest rate cuts materializing. India 10 G-sec yield is rock steady at 6.86% but the OIS has trended lower with very benign inflation readings.
The 10% rally in Iron Ore prices from the bottom has been called irrational by a govt paper. Either short covering or short-term trading rather than actual demand or macro developments are driving the iron ore prices currently. Base metals are being driven by dollar strength or weakness, in the short term. Gold is taking a break at $2515 after making all time high of $2537. Central bank buying in gold, which slowed down markedly in last couple of months, is reported to have resumed.
Macro Views - 19 Aug The panic created by the rise in the US unemployment was well contained over last couple of weeks with higher US retail sales (+1% vs 0.3% exp) and better consumer confidence. The continued fall in inflation (with CPI and PPI both coming off nicely) and the y-o-y CPI below 3% seem to show perfect soft landing scenario. To give credit where it's due - Fed did well to keep the rates steady at recent record highs for all of 2024 and also didn't do anything foolish like an inter-meeting cut under market's pressure earlier in August. The September 25bps cut remains on cards with more guidance coming out from the Jackson Hole meet of central bankers this week.
2yr UST at 4.04% and 10 yr at 3.88% are well above the lows seen post employment data but still much lower than the peaks. The rate cut cycle cannot be extended much into the future as the inflation fears are still very much alive due to geo-political situation and the US elections outcome. Dollar index at 102.11 is nearing Jan lows as the risk-on sentiment takes over. Equities have rallied in US, Japan and India as the last week's fears of imminent action by Iran against Israel receded. And Brent Crude oil fell below $80 again.
Euro, JPY and Gold were the beneficiaries of USD weakness with Euro above 1.1040 in spite of looming cuts by the ECB. The move higher in USDJPY seen last week was a relief rally after the BOJ comments showed that they didn't want very strong JPY either. But the market is in no hurry to put on the carry trade again after burning its fingers. The good part of this risk rally is that it's not driven by the JPY carry trade as evident in price action. Gold has very much behaved like a risk asset in the short term, falling with the equities due to margin calls and liquidity tightening but then rising with equities above $2500 mark. With US fiscal issues and global inflation, Gold is likely to gain further as inflation hedge as well as safe haven in the long run.
USDINR traded in a tight range of 83.85-95 defying global volatility. We are not seeing pressure on either side from flows perspective. INR rates are trending lower in line with the bond inflows and US rates coming off. Any more meaningful fall in INR rates may come only after Fed cuts, leading to RBI cutting the rates with a lag of 1-2 meetings.
Negative press on the pressure caused on global steel prices by China continued and led to Iron Ore prices capitulating last week with near futures falling below $93. The scenario for Iron Ore and Coking coal will emerge according to policy steps in China - to reduce or maintain Steel production and to provide any meaningful stimulus to the battered property market. For now, we may see the prices take a pause or rise a bit furhter from here on profit taking by short traders. Base metals on the other hand have seen good support due to a reasonable outlook on global manufacturing sectors driven by upbeat consumption in the large economies.
