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Mirza Shaheryar Baig
Macro Strategist
Mirza Shaheryar Baig is a macro strategist at Macro Hive, where he specializes in analyzing and trading global foreign exchange (FX) and fixed income markets. He boasts over 20 years of experience in the financial sector, focusing primarily on macroeconomic and discretionary analysis.13
His professional background includes significant involvement in emerging markets, and he has participated in discussions and podcasts related to these topics, sharing insights with industry peers.34 Baig is based in Lahore and has built a substantial network, connecting with numerous professionals in his field.2
Highlights
Not a markets post (though everything connects, doesn't it!)
I just finished re-reading Marcus Aurelius' Meditations. This a small book that one should read like they read deep poetry or scriptures. Slow, and with a notepad and pen in hand. Maybe no more than 5 pages in one sitting.
I'll leave a few short quotes that might resonate. Again, read slow.
"People who love what they do wear themselves down doing it. "
"The things you think about determine the quality of your mind."
"A sailor does not rage at the winds for blowing against him. He adjusts the sails. So it is in business and life. When you set sail, you risk winds to be with you, and against you."
"Soon you'll be ashes and bones, a mere name at most. The things you want in life are stale, empty and trivial. And until that time (death) comes, what? Treat humans as they deserve. Be tolerant with others and strict with yourself. Remember nothing belongs to you but your actions. And nothing else (except your actions) are in your control."
What happens to the dollar when the Fed starts cutting rates?
It depends on WHY the Fed cut.
History shows that if the cut is due to a hard landing (like a stock market crash), the USD rallied before the rate cut. However, if there was no market crash, the USD usually fell.
There are nuances and exceptions to the above. Honestly, what happens after the first cut is more interesting.
Finally, beware simple historical analogs. US vs. RoW rate differentials are currently among the highest in history. If the Fed cuts, others will too, keeping the differential high. The upcoming US elections also add to the complexity of the situation.
Questions, pushback? Feel free to reach out! #USD #Fed #Rates #Economy Macro Hive
