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Nick Kojucharov
Chief Economist, CFA
Nick Kojucharov is an experienced economist with over 10 years of experience in various positions spanning public and private sectors. He is a skilled professional well-versed in a wide range of macro, micro, financial, and sector-specific issues for both advanced and emerging economies. Nick has worked in research, policy, investment, and project management functions, making him an all-around expert in economics, statistics, and econometrics.
Nick graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics, Magna Cum Laude, from the University of Pennsylvania. He also holds a Master of Science (MSc) in Economics from the London School of Economics and completed Executive Education in Economic Development from the Harvard Kennedy School. Nick is a CFA Charterholder, testament to his exemplary financial analysis, capital markets, forecasting, and investment research skills.
He has worked with prestigious organizations such as the World Bank, US Treasury, Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve Board. His experience includes roles such as Senior Economist, Economist, Analyst and Research Analyst, covering diverse fields such as economic development, macroeconomics, capital markets, and research analysis. Nick's background highlights his exemplary track record in providing economic policy advice, conducting research and data analysis, presenting results and providing economic forecasts.
Highlights
Recent softness in US labor market data has caused much market consternation and anxiety about broader economic weakness. However, we see this as consistent with post-pandemic labor market normalization globally, where some degree of cooling is part of the rebalancing process.
What's more important is to recognize that talent shortages remain a significant challenge globally, even in the US where the recent immigration surge has helped boost labor supply but mainly for lower-skilled services occupations. The rise in geopolitically-motivated immigration restrictions is also increasing the risk that residual labor market tightness becomes entrenched/structural, especially in countries already contending with demographic headwinds.
In this context, we continue to advise our clients to plan for elevated labor cost pressures and challenges in global labor sourcing. Enhancing domestic labor productivity, leveraging tools like GenAI, will be key to managing talent shortages effectively.
For a deeper dive into the state of labor markets globally, check out our latest #MacroForesight brief!
https://lnkd.in/gU-aZRSU
Post-pandemic dynamics that drove the recent manufacturing downcycle (e.g. the rotation of consumer demand from goods back to services) have mostly run their course, and the worst of the slump is arguably behind us.
However, a muted manufacturing recovery from here on out is more likely than a forceful rebound, as:
- consumer spending moderates, notably in the US
- residual destocking continues in countries with still-elevated inventory levels (e.g. China)
- manufacturers continue to grapple with high energy costs and geopolitical risks to their supply chains
For more insights on the state of the global manufacturing cycle and region-specific outlooks, see our latest #MacroForesight brief!
https://lnkd.in/gK_mM7eG
