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Reid I'Anson

Economist at Kpler

Reid I'Anson is an economist currently working at Kpler, a data intelligence company focused on commodity markets. Here are some key details about him:

Professional Background

Reid I'Anson specializes in macroeconomics and commodity markets analysis. At Kpler, he focuses on data-driven research to provide valuable insights into global economic trends and commodity flows.

Areas of Expertise

  • Macroeconomic Analysis: He frequently examines and comments on economic indicators, such as household expenditures and wage growth in the United States.3
  • Commodity Markets: Reid has particular expertise in analyzing iron ore, manufacturing activity, and industrial sectors.1
  • Energy Industry: He contributes analysis on topics like Russian oil sanctions and commodity flows.4

Education and Skills

Reid is an alumnus of the University of Houston.2 He describes himself as an "analytics nerd" with a passion for leadership and teaching others.2

Media Contributions

Reid has contributed to notable publications in his field:

  • He has provided analysis for The Economist's coverage of Russian sanctions and commodity flows.4
  • He has been interviewed on podcasts discussing the energy industry.5

Social Media Presence

Reid maintains an active professional presence on social media platforms:

  • His LinkedIn username is reid-ianson, where he regularly shares economic insights and analysis.13
  • He also has a Twitter account (@reid_ianson) where he describes himself as a "Macroeconomist at Kpler" and shares his thoughts on technology and analytics.2

Highlights

May 23 · linkedin

US nominal wage growth, which does not exclude the effects of inflation, has been a notable data point to monitor in the post-Covid period. Through 2022 and 2023, nominal wages in y/y terms grew on average by just under 5%, far surpassing pre-Covid norms closer to 2.4%.

The structural rise in nominal wage growth is unsurprising. At one point in early-2022, the demand for labor likely outpaced supply by more than 6 million people. Higher inflation also caused workers to push for higher pay or prompted a move to a new company, which often brings a big bump in pay. Around the same time in early-2022 that labor supply was far below demand, the quits rate pushed to fresh record-highs (i.e., the level at which people were quitting their jobs, likely to take another somewhere else). A high quits rate is often indicative of a very healthy labor market.

Nonetheless, in recent months, there are signs that the pace of nominal wage growth is slowing a bit. In April, nominal wages rose 3.9% y/y, marking the lowest level since 2021 and below the 4.5% floor that held through much of H1 2023. While there are many possible reasons for this, one key driver has likely been a sizeable recovery in the foreign-born labor force, which has recovered to levels some 5.2% above pre-pandemic trend after bottoming at nearly 5% below trend in 2020. This varies greatly from that of the native-born labor force, which is roughly in line with trend so far this year. If this dynamic were to change in the near future, and US immigration levels showed signs of slowing, wage inflation could again reaccelerate.

May 3 · linkedin

Lately I've been focused on how China is yet again driving growth through it's investment and export oriented growth model. Notably, amid China's drive to effectively import demand from abroad via the export channel, outcry from other nations has risen.

This issue of trade imbalances has been especially contentious across iron ore and steel markets. In 2023 alone, Chinese iron and steel product exports finished at USD 87.1 bn, up 75% against levels from 2019. The issue was even more acute in 2022, when Chinese iron/steel product departures finished at a record USD 96.9 bn.

Such excessively high exports help to explain how Chinese smelters where able to produce nearly 1,020 Mt of crude steel in 2023 despite sizeable declines across the property market. Note that the Chinese government caps production at roughly 1,020 - 1, 030 Mt, so Chinese smelters had no qualms about maxing output limits despite the obvious decline in domestic demand.

China's emphasis on steel production and exports is also evident via iron ore import data. According to Kpler flows, Chinese seaborne iron ore arrivals finished 2023 at 1,224 Mt, higher by 51 Mt y/y, and up by nearly 100 Mt against 2019 levels. The pattern was similarly elevated in 2022, with seaborne i/o offtakes managing 1,172 Mt, up 45 Mt against 2019. China was only able to do this by re-exporting a lot of steel products abroad.

The world is rapidly waking up to this investment + export growth reality. Brazilian smelters have argued that without import tariffs, of which they have lobbied should be increased to 25%, domestic steel production will come under increasingly intense pricing pressure. The United States, while a relatively smaller importer of Chinese steel, is also arguing for a big increase in tariffs.

The point here is that as China pushes a lot of cheap goods onto the international market to drive growth, just as it's always done, the international pushback is likely to grow (the same trend across steel can be seen with EVs at present).

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Reid I'Anson
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Location

Greater Houston