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Richard Project Fi
Board Of Directors at For A Reason
Ending burnout @joinflourish by helping redefine how we think about and relate with work.
Highlights
After much drama, Humana reported Q4 '23 earnings yesterday
What you need to know:
• Q4 Revenue up by 18% YoY to $26.5B • $22.8B in benefits costs (up 22.6% YoY) outpaced revenue growth • Higher than forecast inpatient utilization in Nov and Dec • Resulted in net loss of $540M, 30x the Q4 ‘22 loss of $18M • Q4 adjusted loss per share of $0.11, compared to $1.98 EPS in Q4 ‘22 • Annual profit of $2.49 billion & $20 EPS • Second highest net MA membership growth during AEP, +100K members • Released '24 EPS guidance of $16 – prioritizing margin recovery over growth • Also growing Medicaid business – added two new states: Indiana, Oklahoma • Centerwell primary care business also growing – expecting 340K patients by end of '24
Upcoming earnings:
Cigna - 2/2 Centene - 2/6 CVS - 2/7
Follow along for more concise updates as earnings season progresses
I’ve seen a lot of criticism of the Summa Health / HATCo deal — I’m not sure it’s warranted.
There’s a lot of nuance to unpack - I only scratched the surface with a few hours of reading this weekend - a few thoughts:
• Don’t get too attached, it’s not a done deal: Anti-trust blockages don’t seem likely, but a lot needs to happen for Summa to transition to for-profit status; this isn’t their first time down this path (their deal with Beaumont Health fell apart in 2020).
• It’s not just about the hospital, think bigger picture: Sure, there’s opportunity to improve hospital performance, but HATCo’s vision is bigger. Summa has all the right pieces to make that vision a reality - several hospitals, 1k+ providers (including a 300+ provider multi-specialty medical group), and a health plan (their MA plan has 24k members - only 1.4% YoY growth, though).
• Foundation to test, iterate, grow: These assets are a launchpad for testing new technologies and care models, potentially with GC's 100+ healthcare-focused companies, and exploring strategic growth, including M&A in neighboring states.
• PE and VC are not the same: PE gets a bad rep for transactions like these; we can debate whether that’s warranted, but regardless of what you think about PE, VC != PE. VC has more risk tolerance, a propensity to innovate, and longer time horizons - in reality, it’s a better match for true innovation.
• Don’t underestimate the team: I’ve seen blanket statements like “VC doesn’t have healthcare experience.” The CEO of HATCo was most recently CEO of Intermountain Healthcare and, prior to that, an executive at Cleveland Clinic (OH market knowledge) — it seems safe to assume they’ll build a best-in-class team.
A lot needs to align for this all to come together, but if it does, it’ll definitely be something to keep an eye on if you care about healthcare innovation.
What do you think about the deal? Any additional dynamics you’re either excited or concerned about?
