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Thijs Willems

Advisor Business Development at TenneT

Thijs Willems is an accomplished professional with a robust background in applied mathematics, civil engineering, and business development. He completed his MSc in Applied Mathematics at Technische Universiteit Delft and an exchange program in Applied Mathematics & Financial Engineering at Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne. Additionally, he has completed a summer school program in Linear Programming & Discrete Optimization at Aarhus Universitet.

Thijs worked at different organizations such as Account Manager Energy & New Business at Nouryon, Business Development & Finance at Wattlab, and Associate at HAL Investments. He also worked as a graduate intern at Shell, market research intern at Damen Shipyards Group, team member at Stichting International Research Projects Delft, and assistant teacher at Stichting Studiebegeleiding Leiden.

Thijs's expertise includes business development, finance, research, and education. He possesses excellent communication, management, and analytical skills, making him highly capable of handling complex projects. He is interested in energy, sustainability, and innovation.

Highlights

Nov 10 · linkedin

An excellent summary by Bloomberg Quicktake on the multiple shocks impacting European energy markets.

Shock to gas supply: Russia's share in European gas supply decreased from ±50% in 2019-2020 to ±30% in Q2 2022 according to the European Commission's Quarterly report on European gas markets. Additional shipments of liquified natural gas, most notably from the US, contributed to filling gas storages to adequate levels and hence helped avert an acute gas crunch this winter. However, Europe now competes on the global market with other countries for scarce gas, resulting in significantly higher gas prices and other countries being cut off from their energy imports as shipments are diverted to Europe.

Shock to power supply: Europe's power supply has been constrained by French nuclear power capacity being idled due to corrosion issues, Germany phases out coal and nuclear power plants (recently some postponements have been announced), and droughts resulting in below average hydro power capacity. In addition, record gas prices forced power producers to switch to cheaper fossil fuels, most notably oil and coal, which increased CO2 emissions.

Short term consequences: Higher gas and electricity prices in Europe, and other energy importing nations, drives inflation. CO2 emissions have increased. The risk of an economic contraction increased as companies reduce production and postpone investments, households reduce discretionary spending in response to higher living costs, central banks are increasing interest rates to fight inflation and government deficits are increasing. Security of supply deteriorated, as analysis by the International Energy Agency shows: "in the event of a full cessation of Russian pipeline gas supplies to the EU and a recovery of Chinese LNG imports to 2021 levels, the new IEA analysis shows that Europe could face a challenging supply-demand gap of 30bcm during the key period for refilling gas storage in the summer of 2023. This gap could represent almost half the gas required to fill storage sites to 95% capacity by the start of the 2023-24 heating season." As a reference, at 2020 levels, 30bcm amounts to ±7% of EU gas consumption, ±75% of Dutch gas consumption and 1,5 years of gas production from the Groningen field (CBS).

All in all, affordability, reliability and sustainability - three conditions for a robust energy system - are all adversely impacted by the aforementioned shocks. A new supply-demand equilibrium will settle if we lower demand and increase supply. We need to focus relentlessly on implementing energy efficiency measures. We need to change our behaviour, e.g. travel by train instead of plane, turn down the thermostat. We need to double down on the development of the future energy system while enabling existing - mostly fossil - assets to supply the energy we need throughout this transition. It will be a bumpy ride but all of these measures are no-regret and make for a brighter future. #energy

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Thijs Willems
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Geldermalsen, Gelderland, Netherlands