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Marcelino Pantoja
Vice President at Tribe Capital
Marcelino Pantoja is a venture capital professional and entrepreneur based in the San Francisco Bay Area. He is currently the Founder-in-Residence at Platform Venture Studio, a venture studio supported by PivotNorth Capital, where he helps build and scale startups. He also serves as the CEO and Founder of Measurement, a company he established in 2021, and is a Vice President at Amity Ventures, a role he has held since 2023.123
Pantoja has over 15 years of experience in venture capital and investment management. He previously worked as Vice President at Tribe Capital, Director at Costanoa Ventures, and Senior Investment Associate at Stanford Management Company, where he managed a $500 million direct investment portfolio spanning over 500 startups.12 Additionally, he has contributed to building and advising emerging venture funds that collectively raised and deployed over $2.4 billion into startups.2
He is a first-generation college graduate from Yale University, where he earned his BA and was a Varsity Oarsman on the Heavyweight Crew Team.2
Highlights
Cambridge Associates published their market outlook back in December of last year and offered a view on venture that urges caution toward seed funds.
• Since 2022, more than 4,200 new venture funds have launched in the US, and many are small seed funds under $100 million. • Very large funds over a billion or more still collect most of the money in the market, taking 40% to 60% of total commitments. • The rise in seed funds led to a busy market with more than 5,000 seed-stage rounds each year since 2022. • Of 21 recent VC-backed tech IPOs that they track: the median last 12-month revenue is $537 million, grew 31.4% in the last year, and reached a Rule of 40 of 32.6%. • A seed VC who backs ten to twenty startups a year faces long odds of picking one that reaches this scale. Only 15.5% of seed companies from early 2023 had raised a Series A by early 2025. • Almost all venture returns come from a small group of companies. About 90% of the total value comes from the top 10% of outcomes.
You have to be exceptional to play in this game.

In a 2011 lecture, David Swensen pointed out a striking fact. The gap between top quartile and bottom quartile venture funds was over 40 percent.
That number gets framed as proof that venture rewards skill. It is closer to a warning.
A spread that wide means most returns come from a small group of funds. Those funds see deals that most VCs never see. Access matters more than analysis. The belief is that the best firms stay small because capacity is limited. Once they are full, new capital flows to managers outside that circle.
This is where things break down. As capital pools grow, it gets harder to stay in the top tier. More money does not buy better access. It usually pushes you toward average outcomes. In venture, size works against performance.
For allocators, the implication is uncomfortable but clear. Venture only works at small scale. If you cannot get into the true top funds, you are not picking the next great VC. You are backing someone in a much weaker part of the market. Writing a bigger check does not fix that.
For fund managers, the lesson is just as direct. Scarcity is not marketing. It is what protects access to the few deals that drive returns.
One reason this spread may not last is success itself. Lately the best VCs tend to raise more capital, write bigger checks, and move later in a company’s life. Capacity becomes the constraint. Early-stage exposure falls, ownership shrinks, and the return profile shifts. In the end, the forces that create top-quartile performance also make it hard to sustain.

